Short On Time… Executive Summary
Chicken Little was running the market last week. Lots of news. Earnings continue to beat estimates. This is the point where I refer you back to last week’s note and the summary of Howard Marks’ memo called What Does The Market Know. As of this writing, it is oil down and everything else up. Markets have tended to move inverse of oil prices. Makes sense. Now, on to what I really want to focus on… the longer term. A picture is worth 1,000 words, so here you go. The S&P 500 6 and 12 months after midterm elections, regardless of government’s composition. Maybe it’s different this time?
The Week On Wall Street
Stocks declined over an unusually volatile week as midterm results shifted control of Congress and markets responded. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 2.68 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 3.37 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 0.94 percent lower. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slid 1.95 percent.
A Volatile Week
Stocks were mixed to start the week, kicking off November with a continued rotation out of technology stocks in favor of more defensive names. Markets then jumped midweek as investors believed a decisive midterm election result would help reduce political uncertainty risk. Economically sensitive stocks led the rally, while chip stocks and other tech names trailed. The Dow Industrials rose over 3 percent—its best day in more than 1½ years. But stocks were under steady pressure on Thursday, with tech leading all three major market averages down. Investors continued to rotate out of the AI trade as anxiety grew about what’s next. The Nasdaq dropped 5½ percent while the S&P 500 slid 4.4 percent. The week wrapped on a positive note with markets pushing higher on Friday as investors cheered a better-than-expected jobs report, which helped buoy investor sentiment.
AI Anxiety
So why did markets rally the day after midterm election results were in? Markets seemed to welcome greater clarity about the political landscape. Anxiety returned on Thursday. In the past several weeks, investors have become increasingly concerned about AI stock valuations and have focused on data center buildouts. Those factors had already cooled the AI trade, so the election results brought some issues back into focus. One bright spot for the week was the price of oil. Some believe that lower prices could help ease inflation concerns if the trend continues.
This Week: Key Economic Data
Monday: Wholesale Trade. Fed Presidents Austan Goolsbee (Chicago) and Thomas Barkin (Richmond) speak.
Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Consumer Price Index (CPI). New York Fed report: Q3 Household Debt & Credit. Fed Presidents Jeff Schmid (Kansas City) and Anna Paulson (Philadelphia) speak.
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Existing Home Sales. Treasury Balance. Fed Presidents Mary Daly (San Francisco) and John Williams (New York) speak.
Friday: Producer Price Index (PPI). San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks.
This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings
Stay tuned...
