Short On Time… Executive Summary
The market is still stuck in the mud due to oil prices. Now that we are blocking the blockade, we will see what happens. Today, the market is optimistic about this strategy as oil is off its pre-market opening highs and stocks are in the green a bit. Earnings season starts this week, so let’s reserve judgment until we hear what corporate America has to say. Frankly, I don’t care what the news media has to say as they have no clue and take little responsibility for the confusion and chaos they spread. We are investors and have a longer time horizon than tomorrow or the next news cycle.
The Week On Wall Street
Hope won out over fear last week as investors set their sights on a Middle East ceasefire holding and optimistic prospects for the Strait of Hormuz reopening. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 3.56 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index picked up 4.68 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 3.04 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased 4.52 percent.
Ceasefire Optimism
Stocks opened the week to modest gains, with the S&P 500 rising for the fourth consecutive trading day. Investors warily eyed the U.S.-imposed April 7 deadline for Iran to allow the free flow of oil and commerce through the Strait of Hormuz or risk further attacks on its energy infrastructure. Stocks opened lower Tuesday but recovered late in the session on news that Pakistan asked the U.S. to push its deadline out by two weeks. Markets then pushed higher on Wednesday following White House comments that the U.S. was suspending attacks for two weeks while it considered a ceasefire proposal. All three major averages gained more than 2.5 percent on Wednesday alone as tech stocks led the rally. The relief rally continued through Thursday as the Dow Industrials turned positive for the year. On Friday, the markets shrugged off news that headline inflation rose to a two-year high in March. Stocks also looked past a disappointing consumer sentiment reading.
Mixed Inflation Report
The overall Consumer Price Index rose in March, but a closer look revealed the reason investors were nonplussed by the results. “Headline” inflation, economist-speak for the overall inflation rate, rose 3.8 percent year over year last month. That was up from 2.4 percent in February and its highest level since April 2024. But underlying inflation stayed cool. That’s because much of the rise in overall inflation was attributed to a 21 percent spike in gas prices, an outcome many investors expected. So “core” inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, came in at 2.7 percent year over year, slightly below expectations.
This Week: Key Economic Data
Monday: Existing Home Sales. Fed governor Stephen Miran speaks.
Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Producer Price Index (PPI). Fed governor Michael Barr speaks. Fed Presidents Susan Collins (Boston), Tom Barkin (Richmond), and Anna Paulson (Philadelphia) speak together on a panel about the rural economy.
Wednesday: Import Prices. Home Builder Confidence. Fed Official speeches: Michael Barr and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speak. Fed Beige Book.
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Industrial Production. Capacity Utilization. Fed Official speeches: New York Fed President John Williams and Stephen Miran.
Friday: Housing Starts. Building Permits. Fed Official speeches: Tom Barkin and Christopher Waller.
This Week: Notable Companies Reporting Earnings
Monday: Goldman Sachs (GS), Fastenal (FAST)
Tuesday: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), BlackRock (BLK)
Wednesday: Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Progressive (PGR), PNC Financial Services (PNC), Kinder Morgan (KMI)
Thursday: Netflix (NFLX), PepsiCo (PEP), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Prologis (PLD), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Marsh (MRSH), The Travelers Companies (TRV)
Friday: Truist Financial (TFC)
Stay tuned...
