The Week On Wall Street
Stocks fluctuated last week, jostled by fitful bond yields and headline news, before ending strongly following Fed Chair Powell’s comments on the monetary outlook. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.45%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 0.82%. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 2.26% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, added 0.78%.
Stocks Manage Gains
Stock rallied on Monday on upbeat sentiment over the earnings release from a mega-cap semiconductor company scheduled for mid-week, only to see that momentum fizzle the following day on weak retail earnings and a credit downgrade of a handful of banks. Stocks resumed their rally on weak economic data, which fueled hopes for future Fed dovishness. They also rose on expectations that earnings from a leading AI chipmaker would validate the AI narrative that propelled markets in the second quarter. Despite a blowout earnings report, stocks turned lower as investor attention quickly switched to Fed Chair Powell’s presentation scheduled for Friday. After some initial jitteriness, Investors responded well to Powell’s comments, posting gains to close the week.
Powell Stands Firm
Powell spoke on Friday at the Fed’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, asserting that, despite considerable progress, inflation remained too high and additional rate hikes may be in the offing. He acknowledged that previous rate increases had not yet thoroughly worked their way through the system, so caution about further hikes was needed. Investors reacted to Powell’s comments far better than in August 2022, when a hawkish presentation sent stocks lower. Powell also addressed a growing feeling among investors that the Fed may eventually raise its inflation target to 2.5-3.0%. Powell rejected this idea unambiguously, stating that the two percent target would remain the Fed’s inflation goal.
This Week: Key Economic Data
Tuesday: Consumer Confidence. Job Openings and Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
Wednesday: Automated Data Processing (ADP) Employment Report. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Thursday: Personal Income and Outlays. Jobless Claims.
Friday: Employment Situation. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index.
This Week: Notable Companies Reporting Earnings
Tuesday: Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE), HP, Inc. (HPQ)
Wednesday: Salesforce, Inc. (CRM), Veeva Systems, Inc. (VEEV), CrowdStrike (CRWD).
Thursday: lululemon athletica, inc. (LULU), Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO), Dollar General Corporation (DG), Dell Technologies, Inc. (DELL), VMware, Inc. (VMW)
Final Thoughts
Markets managed to finish the week with a gain of almost 1% even with Powell continuing to crow about inflation at Jackson Hole. Crowing might be a strong word. He actually sounded a little more dovish, and indicated they would be data dependent. We're still in the toughest months of the year for the market, but many still point to additional gains by year end. The market ran hard through July, so a month or two of back and forth isn't surprising. Like our local weatherman Denis Phillips we will invoke his locally famous Rule #7. "Don't panic unless you see me panic." Well, there is definitely no reason to panic here.
Speaking of weather, for those in the central Florida area stay safe tonight as the hurricane passes. If you find yourself in need, call us. We know a lot of folks and have access to a fair amount of resources.
Otherwise, make it a great week!
